Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures ended the Friday session with the nearby contracts 10 to 14 1/2 cents higher. The front month continuation chart broke $4 for the first time since last May. July was up another 5.48% this week. Weather forecasts continue to show rains for much of the Midwest into next week. USDA reported a private export sale of 113,000 MT of corn for 18/19 delivery to Mexico this morning. Spec funds bailed out of their net short position at the fastest weekly pace on record, slashing 166,189 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday to take it to -116,729 contracts. As of last Thursday, USDA showed corn exports at 65% of their full year projection, just 1% behind normal. Total commitments, however, are 12% back of the 5-year average at 81% of the USDA projection, as unshipped sales are lagging.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.04 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.12 1/2, up 14 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.19 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.29 1/4, up 10 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures closed Friday with the front months 8 to 8 1/4 cents higher. July soy meal was up $3.30/ton, with soybean oil 23 points in the green. Support was from spillover from the grains. The markets will be closed on Monday in observance of the Memorial Day Holiday. As of May 16, US soybean shipments were just 70% of the USDA full year projection, with the average at 88%. When adding in the unshipped sales, they are 95% of that projection vs. the 98% pace for this time of year. The managed money spec funds cut back 15,704 contracts from their record large CFTC net short position as of May 21. The specs were still net short 153,131 contracts on that date.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.29 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.36 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.43 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $8.68 1/4, up 8 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $300.50, up $3.30,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.01, up $0.23

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw 10 to 19 1/4 cent gains in most contracts, ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. The markets will be closed for the Monday session. On the week, CBT was up 5.27%, with KC 5.18% higher and MPLS 3.84% above last Friday. Accumulated wheat exports as of May 16 are 91% of USDA’s forecast total, with the normal pace at 96%. Typically Census data runs ahead of the weeks export numbers. The Commitment of Traders report showed that the large spec funds were net short 41,760 contracts of Chicago SRW as of May 21. They continued to back off their large net short in KC futures and options, now at 48,084 contracts. Planalytics raised its forecast for average US winter wheat yield to 52 bushels per acre from 51.1 bpa.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, up 19 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.42, up 16 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.48, up 13 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were 20 to 40 cents lower in most contracts on Friday, with June up 37.5 cents. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 57.5 cents lower, as August was up 20 cents. After the close, the Cattle on Feed report showed April placements up 8.67% from year ago at 1.842 million head, below most estimates. Marketings were up 6.93% from last year at 1.928 million head. The May 1 on feed inventory was pegged at 11.818 million head, up 2.25% and lighter than expectations. The CME feeder cattle index was up $3.11 to $136.81 on May 23. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 85 cents at $221.64 with Select boxes $1.94 higher @ $208.47. USDA has this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 641,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade this week was seen at $115 in the South and $115-116 in the North. The large managed money spec funds continue to liquidate their long position, with the Commitment of Traders report showing their net short position at 72,705 contracts on Tuesday.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $111.175, up $0.375,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $107.950, down $0.200,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $107.775, down $0.275,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.225, up $0.200

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.875, down $0.125

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.225, down $0.525

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted limit losses in the front months on Friday. Tuesday will show expanded limits of $4.50. On the week, June futures lost 6.44%. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $84.36 on May 22. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 65 cents at $83.27 on Friday afternoon. The national average base hog was down a sharp $2.51 on Friday, at an average weighted price of $77.97. Estimated FI hog slaughter is 2.325 million head through Saturday. That was 46,000 head below the previous week and 35,000 above the same week last year. According to state media, China is progressing in finding an ASF vaccine, as they start working on clinical trials. There is no time table as of yet.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $86.425, down $3.000,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $87.950, down $3.000

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $89.300, down $3.000

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw gains of 72 to 91 points in the front months on Friday. The US dollar was down on the day, with crude oil back up 72 cents/barrel. July cotton was up 3.64% this week. The market will be back open for the Monday night session, in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. The CFTC Commitments report released on Friday indicated the large specs in cotton futures and options increasing their net short position by 12,258 contracts. That put them net short a record reported 37,086 contracts in the week ending May 21. USDA data shows cotton export shipments at 70% of USDA’s projected total, with the average pace at 78%. Including the unshipped sales, total commitments are 107% of that projection, with the average pace at 101%. The Cotlook A index for May 23 was down 55 points from the previous day to 77.75 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.37 cents/lb, down 14 points from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 68.390, up 91 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 67.990, up 76 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 67.550, up 72 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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