Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are down 1 to 3 cents in most contracts on Thursday, following the release of the Trade Aid information. USDA reported that the trade aid for this year will be based on single county rates multiplied by aggregate acres of the 29 listed crops affected including corn. The payments will not be included on prevent plant acres. The USDA reported 442,080 MT of old crop corn sold during the week of May 16, with Japan purchasing 185,800 MT. That was in the range of estimates but down 48.25% from the same week a year ago. New crop sales totaled 183,879 MT. An auction of Chinese state reserves sold 3.62 MMT of 2014 corn on Thursday, which was 90.66% of the total offered.

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.91 1/2, down 3 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $4.00 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn is at $4.10, down 2 3/4 cents

Mar 20 Corn is at $4.20 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 1/2 cents lower in the front months on Thursday. July soy meal is down 20 cents/ton, with soybean oil 48 points lower. The second round of MFP payments $16 billion, with $14.5 billion direct payments to producers. The rates (released at a later time) will be calculated on a county basis, based off trade damages. Payments will be based off aggregate acres of the affected crops, and not the individual commodity as to “not distort planting decisions.” The Export Sales report released this morning showed 535,848 MT of old crop soybeans sold during the week of May 16. That was a 44.5% jump from last week and well above last year for this time. Unknown destinations purchased a total of 255,500 MT. New crop sales totaled just 5,100 MT. Meal sales totaled 300,059 MT, with soy oil at 9,088 MT.

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.23, down 5 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.30 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $8.37 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans are at $8.49 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal is at $298.10, down $0.20

Jul 19 Soybean Oil is at $26.83, down $0.48

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are showing mixed trade on Thursday, with CBT leading the way to the upside, fractionally to 2 cents higher. KC is fractionally higher to 3 cents lower, with MPLS mostly 1 to 4 cents in the red. Some HRW areas have sustained frost damage this week, while others have snow on them. Wheat is also on the list for this round of MPF payments, with the single county rates released at a later time. All wheat export sales for the week of May 16 totaled 48,395 MT for old crop, in the range of estimates. Unshipped sales are now at 2.684 MMT with just 2 reporting weeks left in the MY. New crop sales were reported at 344,852 MT, with unknown buying 196,000 MT. Russia’s Ag Ministry expected the 2019 wheat crop to total 75 MMT, below USDA’s 77 MMT projection.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.73 3/4, up 1 cent,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.29 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.40, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are anywhere from 10 cents higher to 20 cents lower in the front months at midday. Feeder cattle futures are also mixed, with expiring May up 15 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 9 cents to $132.16 on May 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday morning. Choice boxes were up 76 cents at $220.51 with Select boxes 86 cents higher @ $2036.67. USDA has this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 360,000 head through Wednesday. A few cash sales of $115 were reported in the South on Wednesday, with $185-186 in the north. Some cash trade in the north was reported at $116 this morning. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected to show April placements up 13.5% from a year ago, with marketings in that month 6.6% higher. Export sales of beef were reported at 24,394 MT in the week of may 16 this morning. Shipments were seen at 17,940 MT.

Jun 19 Cattle are at $110.750, up $0.100,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $107.875, down $0.075,

Oct 19 Cattle are at $107.775, down $0.025,

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $135.600, up $0.150

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.525, down $0.075

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.575, down $0.300

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are mixed at midday, with June down 27.5 cents and July up a nickel. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $84.39 on May 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 28 cents at $85.11 on Thursday morning. The belly primal was the only one higher, up $11.41. The national average base hog was up $1.11 on Thursday, at an average weighted price of $80.33. Estimated FI hog slaughter is 1.41 million head through Wednesday. That was 29,000 head above the previous week and 35,000 above the same week last year. USDA reported weekly pork export sales of 46,279 MT during the week that ended on May 16, with 31,363 MT sold to China. Exports were shown at 24,081 MT.

Jun 19 Hogs are at $89.375, down $0.275,

Jul 19 Hogs are at $91.100, up $0.050

Aug 19 Hogs are at $92.175, unch,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 87 to 107 points higher at midday. USDA released information on the 2019 MFP payments this year, showing a county damage based payment rate, with the initial of three payments this summer. Payments will be based on aggregate acreage of the 29 listed crops that were affected by trade. Export sales of upland cotton were reported at 381,426 RB for old crop, a MY high and well above last year. India purchased 98,500 RB, with Turkey at 93,200 RB, as China canceled a net 25,127 RB. New crop upland sales were also a MY higher 241,514 RB. Vietnam bought 79,000 RB, with China purchasing 19,800 RB. The Cotlook A index for May 22 was down 50 points from the previous day to 78.3 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

Jul 19 Cotton is at 67.67, up 92 points,

Dec 19 Cotton is at 67.1, up 92 points

Mar 20 Cotton is at 67.880, up 87 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.