Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning. They settled Tuesday with 1 to 3 1/2 cent losses, as all 2019 contracts posted new life of contracts lows. Forecasts for the next week should allow for some field work to pick up across parts of the Corn Belt. Spillover selling from soybeans was also seen as pressure. None of the 18 reported states were shown ahead of their average pace for planting in Monday’s Crop Progress report. Last year turned out OK on yield, so the market isn’t getting excited yet. The average US cash price for corn on Tuesday via cmdtyView data was $3.29 1/2, down 27 3/4 cents from last year. That would put basis at -21 1/2 cents, 9 3/4 cents stronger than the same time in 2018.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 2 1/2 cents higher this morning. They posted 13 to 15 1/4 cent losses on Tuesday, hitting new 2019 lows on the continious front month chart. Preliminary open interest shows net new selling of a modest 8,770 contracts. A lot of rolling from May to July was also noted. Meal futures were $1.50/ton lower, May soy oil down 64 points, weakening product values. Argentina’s soybean harvest is now thought to be 30% complete. Brazil has harvested 92% of the crop in that country. Brazil’s Ag Ministry expects soybean exports to be hurt by the spread of ASF in China. US Soybean cash prices averaged $7.81 on Tuesday per cmdtyView, $1.73 1/4 lower than the same day a year ago. The national basis was -81 cents; that is still 14 1/2 cents weaker yr/yr.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower in the winter wheat markets after seeing most contracts steady to 3 1/2 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. Minneapolis spring wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher ahead of the Stats Canada acreage report (expected to show larger wheat intentions than year ago). Individual state winter wheat condition ratings from Monday showed KS down 4 points, with OK, IL, and IN also seen lower. The spring wheat crop has yet to be planted in MN and ND according to NASS data, well behind their respective 24% and 12% averages. Taiwan purchased 109,175 MT of US wheat in their tender on Tuesday. SovEcon did trim their Russian wheat exports for 18/19 by 0.2 MMT to 34.9 MMT. Russian exports YTD are down 3% from last year despite a much smaller 2018 crop. Stocks have been drawn down.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended Tuesday with most contracts steady to 57.5 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures got some help from lower corn, with marginal gains in most contracts and nearby May down $1.175. The CME feeder cattle index was down 13 cents to $145.84 on April 22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 37 cents at $234.11, with Select boxes $1.38 lower @ $221.26. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 236,000 head through Tuesday. That was down 6,000 head from the week prior and even with the same week last year. The FCE auction today has 461 head listed for sale.

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures closed the Tuesday session with most 2019 contracts steady to $1.40 lower. Preliminary open interest rose 2500 contracts. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 52 cents from the previous day @ $81.54 on April 19. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.06 higher in the Tuesday afternoon report, at $88.92. All primals were reported higher. The national average base hog was $80.02, down 19 cents on Tuesday. Estimated FI hog slaughter for this week is 799,000 head through Tuesday. That was down from last year and the week prior due to Monday’s plant down time.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 23 to 35 lower this morning, ignoring the October contract with its single overnight trade. They were down 37 to 62 points in most front months on Tuesday, with pressure coming from strength in the US dollar. Planting progress in TX was reported at 12% as of Sunday, 1% faster than average, with GA @ 6% planted. China is selling nearly 1 MMT of cotton from state reserves this year, starting on May 5 and running to Sept 30. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points at 88.25 on April 18. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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